利用卷积长短期记忆网络预测全球电离层Ne

Global Ionospheric Ne Prediction Using the ConvLSTM Network

  • 摘要: 由于电离层电子密度随时间变化,且空间分布不均匀,对不同频段的无线电波产生延缓和折射,因此电离层电子密度变化是影响短波通信、卫星通信、全球导航卫星系统和其他空间通信质量的一个主要因素,本文对全球电离层电子密度(Number of electron,Ne)的预测工作对短波通信设备三维射线实时追踪定位提供必要条件。本文采用国际电离层参考模型提供的2016年电离层Ne数据,根据数据的三维空间时间序列特征,搭建了自编码器和卷积长短期记忆(Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Network,ConvLSTM)网络组成的网络结构,在不引入地球自转周期之外任何先验知识的条件下,对Ne数据进行深度学习并实现预测,首先通过实验对比了SGD、Adagrad、Adadelta、Adam、Adamax和Nadam六种优化算法的性能,又对比了三种预测策略的均方根误差(Root Mean Square Error, RMSE),1h-to-1h预测策略的全球平均RMSE为1.0 NEU(最大值的0.4%),1h-to-24h和24h-to-24h预测策略的全球平均RMSE为6.3 NEU(2.6%)。由实验结果得出以下结论,一是Nadam优化算法更适合电离层Ne的深度学习,二是1h预测策略的性能与之前类似的电离层TEC预测工作(RMSE高于1.5 TECU,最大值的1%)相比有竞争力,但预测时间太短且对数据的实时性要求较高,三是两种24h预测策略虽能实现长期预测但性能不理想,要实现三维空间时间序列的长期高精度预测需要进一步改善神经网络、模型结构和预测策略。

     

    Abstract: ‍ ‍The time-varying and uneven spatial distribution of electron density (number of electrons (Ne) in m3) in the ionosphere retards and refracts electromagnetic waves in different frequency bands, in particular, radio waves from Very Low Frequencies (VLFs) to Very High Frequencies (VHFs). The ionospheric electromagnetic activity is a major factor in the quality of HF communication, satellite communication, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSSs), and other space communications. Globally forecasting the Ne would improve the positioning accuracy of HF communication equipment, particularly in providing necessary conditions for precise positioning of real-time 3D ray tracing. The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model is an empirical model based on long-term data records from ground and space observations of the ionosphere. It has undergone extensive validation and is used for a wide range of applications in science, engineering, and education. Extensive publicly available 2016 ionospheric Ne data provided by the IRI model IRI2016 is a time series with three-dimensional spatial characteristics. SHI has confirmed through experiments that the Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) is better than a simple LSTM in handling spatiotemporal data owing to its ability to simultaneously utilize both spatial and temporal information of the data. Based on the high-dimensional spatiotemporal features of Ne data, this study constructs a network model composed of an autoencoder and ConvLSTM to forecast a sequence of global Ne 3D maps without introducing any prior knowledge other than the Earth rotation periodicity. The encoder has three convolutional layers that reduce the spatial dimension, creating coded Ne maps, which are the inputs of ConvLSTM; subsequently, the decoder with three convolutional layers increases the output spatial size back to its original input size. We compare the performance of six optimization algorithms. We compare the root mean square error (RMSE) of three prediction strategies: the global mean RMSE of the 1h to 1h prediction strategy was 1.0 Ne units (NEU), which was 0.4% of the maximum value 243 NEU, whereas the global mean RMSE of the 1h to 24h and 24h to 24h prediction strategies was 6.3 NEU (2.6%). Based on the experimental results, the following conclusions can be drawn: first, Nadam is better for Ne prediction. Second, the performance of the 1h prediction strategy is competitive compared with similar ionospheric TEC prediction studies, achieving an RMSE higher than 1.5 TECU, which is 1% of the TEC maximum value 151 TECU; however, the prediction time is too short and real-time requirements for data are higher. Third, although the two 24h prediction strategies can achieve long-term prediction, their performance is not ideal. Currently, no suitable neural network exists for three-dimensional spatial data. The ConvLSTM network proposed by SHI can reflect only two-dimensional spatial relationships. Although all its inputs, outputs, and intermediate transition states are 3D tensors, only the last two dimensions are spatial (rows and columns), losing the spatial variation characteristics of Ne data at height, which is also one of the factors affecting prediction accuracy. Therefore, further improvement of neural networks, model structures, and prediction strategies are required to achieve long-term and high-precision prediction of three-dimensional spatiotemporal sequences.

     

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