预警系统中的智能方法综述

Intelligent Methods for Early Warning System: A Review

  • 摘要: 预警系统是一种在危险发生之前,根据以往规律和当前观测识别异常,进而发出警示信号的系统。传统的预警系统常常依赖专家的经验和直觉进行分析和决策,而专家难以及时处理大量信息,且作出的决策比较主观,因此预警的有效性难以保证。为了实现自动预警,部分研究者试图根据警兆和警情的逻辑关系建立物理模型来实现预警,然而在建立模型、确定指标以及各指标权重时仍带有一定的主观性。在复杂场景中,模型、指标以及各指标权重的确定尤为困难,依赖物理模型的预警方法效率低下。借助数理统计技术可以在一定程度上缓解上述方案主观、低效的问题。统计方法需要对数据的分布等作出假设,然而,在复杂场景中这些假设很难贴合实际,偏离现实的假设反而会影响预警的性能。随着人工智能技术的快速发展,越来越多的人工智能方法被用于预警系统。利用机器学习方法,预警系统可以从大量数据中挖掘和学习某种特定的模式,从而帮助模型、指标以及指标权重的选取;借助专家系统,预警系统可以根据规则自动地进行逻辑推理以快速作出专业决策;利用信息融合技术,预警系统可以充分利用多源观测信息,分析得到更全面的结论。人工智能技术在一定程度上克服了传统预警系统的弊端,提升了预警系统的准确性、灵活性和通用性。本文对预警系统中的智能方法进行综述,首先介绍了预警系统的基本概念和传统预警系统及其局限性,随后重点阐述了基于机器学习方法的预警系统、基于专家系统的预警系统和基于信息融合技术的预警系统,最后进行总结,并讨论了当前智能方法存在的问题和可能的发展方向。

     

    Abstract: ‍ ‍Early warning system uses past experiences and current observations to detect anomalies and sends out warning signals before the danger happens. Traditional early warning systems often rely on experts to analyze data and make decisions. However, it is difficult for the experts to deal with a large amount of information in time, and the decision made is subjective. The effectiveness of early warning is doubtful. To achieve automatic early warning, some researchers try to establish physical model based on causal relationship between warning signs and their dangerous outcomes. Nevertheless, it is still subjective in selecting models, determining indicators and the weights of each indicator, especially in complex scenes. The early warning method relying on physical model is inefficient. Mathematical statistics technology can reduce the subjectivity and inefficiency mentioned above to some extent. Statistical methods need to make assumptions about data characteristics, such as the distribution of data, while it is difficult to make appropriate assumptions in complex scenarios. Unreasonable hypothesis will lead to poor warning performance. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, increasingly artificial intelligence methods have been used in early warning systems. With the help of machine learning technology, the early warning systems can mine and learn particular patterns from a large amount of data, which help the selection of models, indicators, and the weights of indicators; With the help of expert system, the early warning systems can automatically make logical reasoning according to the rules to make decisions professionally and efficiently; With the help of information fusion technology, the early warning system can make use of multi-source observation information efficiently and draw a more comprehensive conclusion. Artificial intelligence technology can overcome the disadvantages of traditional early warning systems in some degree, and improves the accuracy, flexibility, and generality of early warning systems. In this paper, the intelligent methods in early warning systems are reviewed. Firstly, the basic concept of early warning systems, the traditional early warning systems and their limitations are introduced. Then, the early warning system based on machine learning method, expert system and information fusion technology are elaborated. Finally, the conclusions are given, and some issues and future development directions of intelligent methods are discussed.

     

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