融合注意力机制SimAM的CNN-MogrifierLSTM航班延误波及预测
Flight Delay Propagation Prediction Model Based on CNN-MogrifierLSTM with Attention Mechanism SimAM
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摘要: 连续航班中的延误波及往往会引起大规模的航班延误产生,提前对航班延误波及问题进行预测可以为民航部门提供有效参考,减少相关的经济损失。本文首先对航班数据进行清洗与数据融合,针对空管部门实际航班运行情况提出强空间航班链数据集与强时序航班链数据集两种不同的构造方法;然后根据航班延误波及传播的空时特性提出融合注意力机制SimAM的CNN-MogrifierLSTM网络模型,先使用卷积神经网络(Convolutional Neural Network, CNN)结合注意力机制SimAM模块对空间特征进行提取,再用形变的长短时记忆网络(Mogrifier Recurrent Neural Network, MogrifierLSTM)对时序信息进行学习;最后使用Softmax分类器对延误等级进行分类预测。本文提出的预测方法,在航班延误波及进行预测的实验中取得了93.16%的准确率,相比单独使用CNN或LSTM大有提升,加上SimAM注意力机制后相比CNN-MogrifierLSTM网络在不同数据集上准确率也提升了0.6%左右。Abstract: Large scale flight delays are often caused by the spread of delay propagation in continuous flights. The effective reference of the civil aviation departments is presented and the related economy is reduced by predicting the flight delay in advance. Firstly, datasets are to be cleaned and fused in this model. Two different construction methods for strong spatial flight chain datasest and strong sequential flight chain datasets are designed according to the actual flight operation situation of air traffic control department. Secondly, CNN-MogrifierLSTM with attention mechanism SimAM is proposed based on the space-time characteristics of the flight delay spread, SimAM-CNN module is used for primary extraction of spatial features, and then MogrifierLSTM network is applied for learning time information. Finally, softmax classifier is utilized to classify and predict the delay levels of flights. The prediction method in this paper achieved an accuracy of 93.16%, which is better than either CNN or LSTM alone. With the addition of SimAM attention mechanism, the accuracy of CNN-MogrifierLSTM network on different datasets are also improved by about 0.6%.