航路点通行能力计算的置信区间方法

Confidence Interval Method for Calculating the Capacity of Waypoints

  • 摘要: 为更准确地计算航路点通行能力,对传统的饱和流率法进行修正,提出一种基于置信区间的航路点通行能力计算方法。首先,整合筛选广播式自动相关监视ADS-B(Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast)历史数据得到航路点实测小时流量数据。然后,对各航路点样本数据进行正态检验,对不符合正态分布的数据进行变换使其具有正态性。最后,利用置信区间修正处理后的流量数据,最终得到航路点的通行能力值。实验结果表明,饱和流率方法修正前后的通行能力值的平均误差分别为6.08架次/小时和3.24架次/小时,修正后平均误差率降低了9%,相对于修正前更加可靠,可为空管系统合理分配空域资源,优化通行能力提供参考依据。

     

    Abstract: ‍ ‍In order to calculate the waypoint capacity more accurately, the traditional saturated flow rate method is modified, and a waypoint capacity calculation method based on the confidence interval is proposed. First, integrate and filter the historical data of ADS-B to obtain the measured hourly flow data of the waypoints. Then, the normality test is performed on the sample data of each waypoint, and the data that does not conform to the normal distribution is transformed to make it normal. Finally, use the confidence interval to correct the processed flow data, and finally get the capacity value of the waypoint. The experimental results show that the average error of the capacity value before and after the correction of the saturated flow rate method is 6.08 sorties/hour and 3.24 sorties/hour, respectively. After the correction, the average error rate is reduced by 9%, which is more reliable than before the correction. It can be an air traffic control system. Reasonably allocate airspace resources and optimize traffic capacity to provide a reference basis.

     

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