空天地海一体化海洋环境数据多步预测
Multi-step Prediction of Ocean Environmental Data Based on Space-Air-Ground-Sea Integration
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摘要: 辅助海洋管理决策的多步预测预警意义重大且极具挑战性。实时、稳定、高效的广域海洋环境数据获取是保障多步预测性能的前提,未来6G空天地海一体化网络部署将有效地提升海洋分布式态势感知能力,提供高质量的数据支撑。众所周知,多步长模式下数据间的时序依赖性被极大地弱化,对此,本文提出了基于多阶段特征学习的海洋环境数据多步预测模型。结构上,该模型主要包括卷积神经网络(Convolutional Neural Networks, CNN)、优化组合的长短期记忆网络(Long Short-Term Memory Network, LSTM)和全连接层。这里,CNN用于提取海洋环境数据的细粒度特征,而基于粒子群优化的多LSTM组合方法,可以有效地挖掘数据间的时序依赖关系(粗粒度特征)。实验结果表明该模型的预测性能明显优于CNN、LSTM以及门控制循环单元,并进行了统计验证。Abstract: Multi-step prediction and early warning to assist ocean management and decision making were significant and challenging. Real-time, stable and efficient acquisition of wide-area ocean environment data was the premise to guarantee multi-step prediction performance. The air-space-ground-sea integrated 6G network deployment could effectively improve distributed perception capacity, and provide high-quality data support. As we all know, the temporal dependence between data in multi-step mode was greatly weakened. The paper proposed a multi-step prediction model of ocean environmental data based on multi-stage feature learning. In structure, it mainly included a convolutional neural networks (CNN), optimally combined LSTMs (OLSTMs), and a fully connected layer. Here, CNN was used to extract fine-grained features between data, while the multi-LSTM combination method based on particle swarm optimization could effectively capture the temporal dependencies between data (coarse-grained features). Experimental results show that the prediction performance of our proposal is significantly better than CNN, LSTM, and gated recurrent unit (GRU), and some statistical verifications are carried out.