基于气象雷达数据与气象预报信息的迁徙鸟群密度预测方法

Migration Bird Density Prediction Using Weather Parameters Based on Meteorological Radar Datasets

  • 摘要: 我国生态环境的逐年改善使得鸟类活动规模日趋增加,民航鸟击风险以及事件也同样呈上升态势。除机场周边低空留鸟之外,迁徙鸟群凭借空间分布范围广、体积大等特点同样对民航飞行器的全航路安全造成较大威胁,需可靠的广域鸟情监测手段提供预警信息进而降低鸟击风险。气象雷达凭借全天候工作、探测范围大、可组网等诸多优势成为目前实现中高空空域广域迁徙鸟群探测的最佳遥感手段。本文基于气象雷达探测数据构建了鸟群目标的高维特征空间,采用数据优选以及机器学习模型实现基于气象雷达探测数据的鸟群目标识别。提出了适用于非均匀空间分布条件下的鸟群密度评估方法,实现对指定时空窗口内鸟群活动规模的量化描述。基于鸟类活动与气象信息关联模式的先验信息,构建了鸟群密度与多元气象参数之间的映射模型。通过设计合理的数据采样方法生成鸟群密度与气象参数数据集,应用随机森林模型建立了基于气象预报信息的鸟群密度数值回归模型。采用北京和福州两地春秋季节的气象雷达探测数据,分别从鸟群密度比对以及人工观测鸟情交叉验证两个方面开展验证实验。结果表明基于气象参数信息可实现对鸟群密度的有效预测,且高活跃度下鸟群密度预测具备更高的预测精度,为全航路鸟击风险评估与防范提供了可靠的参考信息。

     

    Abstract: The annual improvement in China’s ecological environment leads to a continuous increase in the scale of bird activities, and the risk and incidence of civil aviation bird strikes also increase. In addition to low-altitude resident birds around airports, migratory birds pose significant threats to civil aviation safety throughout the entire flight route owing to their wide spatial distribution range and large size. Reliable methods for monitoring wide-area bird situations are required for threat warning and reducing bird strike risks along the entire route. Meteorological radar systems, which have advantages like all-weather operation, large detection range, and networking capabilities, represent the best remote sensing solution for wide-area bird flock surveillance. In this study, we construct a high-dimensional feature space for bird flock targets based on meteorological radar detection data and uses data optimization and machine learning models to identify bird flock targets based on meteorological radar detection data. Based on this, a method for assessing bird flock density suitable for non-uniform spatial distribution conditions is proposed, enabling the quantitative description of the scale of bird flock activities within a specified spatiotemporal window. Based on prior information on the correlation patterns between bird activities and meteorological information, a model is constructed for mapping bird flock density with multiple meteorological parameters. By designing a reasonable data sampling method, a dataset containing bird flock density and meteorological parameters is generated, and a random forest regression model is used to establish a numerical regression model for bird flock density based on meteorological forecast information. Using meteorological radar detection data from Beijing and Fuzhou during the spring and autumn seasons, we validated the model from two aspects: cross-verification of radar and manual observation of bird situations. Experimental results showed that meteorological parameter information can effectively estimate bird flock density, and under high activity levels, bird flock density has higher prediction accuracy. This provides reliable reference information for evaluating wide-area bird strike risks and avoiding their flight routes.

     

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