基于地基微变监测雷达数据的BiTCN-LSTM矿山滑坡短期位移预测方法
Bidirectional Temporal Convolutional Network-Long Short-Term Memory Short-Term Displacement Prediction Method for Mining Landslides Based on Ground-Based Micro-Deformation Monitoring Radar Data
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摘要: 滑坡位移预测是矿山灾害预警的关键。然而,滑坡位移时间序列具有显著的非线性特性,单一预测模型难以精准捕捉,导致预测精度受限。为充分挖掘位移时间序列中的特征信息,提高预测的稳定性与准确性,本研究结合时间序列分解与深度学习方法,提出了一种基于地基微变监测雷达时间序列的矿山滑坡短期位移预测模型。首先,从雷达图像中提取滑坡位移时间序列并采用滤波算法对原始位移数据进行降噪处理;其次,利用变分模态分解(Variational Mode Decomposition, VMD)将位移时间序列分解为基准项和波动项;最后,针对不同分量的时序特性,分别采用自回归移动平均(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, ARIMA)模型预测基准项位移,双向时间卷积网络-长短期记忆网络(Bidirectional Temporal Convolutional Network-Long Short-Term Memory, BiTCN-LSTM)组合模型预测波动项位移,叠加各分量预测结果获得总位移预测值。以某露天矿山两个不同变形特征的监测点为例,对该模型进行了验证,并与已有模型进行了比较。结果表明:VMD能够有效分离位移序列的不同频率分量,简化预测复杂度。BiTCN-LSTM组合模型通过整合双向时间卷积网络(Bidirectional Temporal Convolutional Network, BiTCN)的局部特征提取能力和长短期记忆网络(Long Short-Term Memory, LSTM)的长期依赖学习能力,显著提升了波动项位移的预测精度。与单一BiTCN和LSTM模型相比,所提模型的均方根误差和平均绝对误差降低了20%~60%,拟合系数达到0.98以上,且预测误差主要集中在0~0.5%范围内,表现出良好的稳定性和泛化能力。本研究为滑坡位移预测提供了一种有效方法,为矿山滑坡预测预警提供了新途径。Abstract: Landslide displacement prediction is a critical component of mine disaster early warning. However, landslide displacement time series exhibit significant nonlinear behavior, making it difficult for a single prediction model to capture these characteristics simultaneously, which limits prediction accuracy. To fully extract characteristic information from the displacement time series and improve prediction stability and accuracy, time series decomposition was combined with deep learning methods in this study and a short-term displacement prediction model for mining landslides based on the time series of ground-based micro-deformation monitoring radar was proposed. First, landslide displacement time series were extracted from radar images, and filtering algorithms were applied to denoise the raw displacement data. Next, variational mode decomposition (VMD) was used to decompose the displacement time series into a baseline term and a fluctuation term. Considering the distinct temporal characteristics of each component, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the baseline displacement, while the bidirectional temporal convolutional network-long short-term memory (BiTCN-LSTM) hybrid model was adopted to predict the fluctuation displacement. The total displacement was obtained by superimposing the predicted terms. The proposed model was validated using two monitoring points with different deformation characteristics in an open-pit mine and was compared with existing prediction models. The results showed that VMD effectively separated displacement series into terms with different frequency characteristics, reducing prediction complexity. By integrating the local feature extraction capability of the bidirectional temporal convolutional network (BiTCN) with the long-term dependency learning ability of the long short-term memory (LSTM) network, the hybrid model significantly improved the prediction accuracy of the fluctuation term displacement. Compared with the single BiTCN and LSTM models, the proposed model reduced the root mean square error and average absolute error by 20%~60%, and the fitting coefficient reached or exceeded 0.98. The prediction error was mainly concentrated in the range of 0~0.5%, demonstrating good stability and generalization ability. This paper provides an effective method for predicting landslide displacement and a new approach for landslide prediction and early warning in mines.
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