基于分解时频增强的少样本时间序列预测

Decomposition-Based Time-Frequency Augmentation for Few-Shot Time-Series Forecasting

  • 摘要: 作为一项通过分析历史数据推测未来时序变化的关键技术,时间序列预测在能源管理、交通流量预测、金融市场价格分析及气象变化模拟等科学与工程领域具有不可替代的价值。深度学习技术的引入则显著提升了预测模型的精度,但其对大规模标注数据的高度依赖性,使得在现实场景中(尤其是少样本条件下)的应用仍存在显著局限性。尽管图像与文本领域的少样本学习研究已取得显著进展,但面向时间序列预测的少样本学习方法尚未形成完备的方法体系。时间序列数据因蕴含独特的时域(趋势)与频域(季节性)特征,难以直接迁移其他模态的少样本学习策略。为此,本文提出一种基于时频域数据增强的少样本时间序列预测架构,通过解耦与增强时序数据的趋势及季节成分以增加数据多样性。首先,通过时间序列分解技术将原始数据解耦为趋势分量和季节性分量;其次,设计时域混合(Mix-up)增强策略对趋势分量进行线性插值扰动,并利用主导频率打乱(Dominant-Shuffle)方法对季节分量的频谱施加可控噪声;最后,通过分量重组构建时域、频域及时频域混合增强样本;在四个基准数据集ETTh1、ETTm2、Weather和Electricity上的实验表明,本方法可显著提升多种前沿预测模型的少样本性能。与基于大语言模型(Large Language Model, LLM)的基线方法相比,本方法驱动下的轻量级模型在80%的场景中实现预测精度超越,同时显著降低了计算成本。

     

    Abstract: As a pivotal technique for predicting future temporal variations through historical data analysis, time-series forecasting is critical in scientific and engineering domains such as energy management, traffic-flow prediction, financial market-price analysis, and meteorological simulation. Whereas the integration of deep learning has considerably enhanced the accuracy of predictive models, their high reliance on large-scale annotated data continues to impose significant constraints on real-world applications, particularly under few-shot scenarios. Although few-shot learning for vision and language modalities has progressed significantly, the methodological framework for few-shot time-series forecasting remains underdeveloped. The unique temporal-domain characteristics (trend patterns) and frequency-domain features (seasonality) inherent in time-series data render it challenging to directly transfer few-shot learning strategies from other modalities. Hence, we propose a temporal-frequency domain data-augmentation framework for few-shot time-series forecasting, which enhances data diversity through decoupling and reinforcing trend-seasonal components. First, we employ time-series decomposition to decouple raw sequences into trend and seasonal components. Second, we design a temporal mix-up strategy to apply linear interpolation perturbations on trend components, coupled with a dominant-shuffle method that injects controllable noise into the spectral domain of seasonal components. Finally, we construct three augmented samples through component recombination, i.e., time-augmented, frequency-augmented, and hybrid time-frequency-augmented samples. Extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets demonstrate that our method significantly improves few-shot performance across state-of-the-art forecasting models. Compared with large-language-model-based baselines, our approach enables lightweight models to achieve superior prediction accuracy in 80% of scenarios while substantially reducing computational costs.

     

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